報告書番号

EY89001

タイトル（和文）

DEVELOPING AN INTER-FUEL COMPETITION MODEL -ANALYSIS OF THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN ENERGY DEMAND-SUPPLY IN JAPAN-

タイトル（英文）

DEVELOPING AN INTER-FUEL COMPETITION MODEL -ANALYSIS OF THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN ENERGY DEMAND-SUPPLY IN JAPAN-

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

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概要 （英文）

AS A RESULT OF STABLE OIL PRICES AFTER THE SHARP DECREASE IN 1986,ENERGY DEMAND HAS STARTED TO INCREASE IN JAPAN AND THE DEMAND COMPOSITION, WHICH HAS BEEN SHIFTING FROM OIL SINCE THE FIRST OIL CRISIS,SEEMS TO HAVE DECELERATED. WE EXAMINED THE TRENDS IN ENERGY DEMAND UP TO 2000 AND PAID SPECIAL ATTENTION TO TWO ASPECTS: (1)WHETHER THE HIGH GROWTH IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS TEMPORARY OR NOT,AND (2)WILL INTER-FUEL COMPETITION PROGRESS. WE CONDUCTED SIMULATIONS ON FOUR CASES (BASE CASE,HIGH ENERGY PRICE CASE,CO2 EMISSION TAX CASE,AND DEINDUSTRIALIZATION CASE). THE RESULTS OF THE BASE CASE ARE SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS: 1.ENERGY DEMAND WILL ENTER A LONG-TERM BASIC INCREASE BECAUSE OF STABLE ENERGY PRICES AND A SLOWDOWN IN ENERGY CONSERVATION MAINLY BY INDUSTRY,AND 2.DEMAND FOR PETROLEUM PRODUCTS WILL INCREASE AS THEY RECOVER PRICE COMPETITIVENESS. BY USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,THE IMPACT OF PRICE AND INCOME ON ENERGY DEMAND WAS ANALYZED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED CO2 EMISSIONS WAS EVALUATED IF A TAX IS IMPOSED ON FOSSIL FUELS.

報告者

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