報告書番号

EY90003

タイトル（和文）

CRIEPI MULTISECTORAL MODEL OF JAPANESE ECONOMY

タイトル（英文）

CRIEPI MULTISECTORAL MODEL OF JAPANESE ECONOMY

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

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概要 （英文）

TO DRAW A CLEAR QUANTITATIVE PICTURE OF JAPANESE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR ENERGY TOWARD THE 21ST CENTURY,CRIEPI LAUNCHED A RESEARCH PROJECT TO DEVELOP A MEDIUM-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTING SYSTEMS NAMED FORECAST 21 IN FISCAL 1987. THIS SYSTEM WAS DESIGNED TO BE COMPOSED OF FOUR ECONOMETRIC MODELS. THE FIRST VERSION WAS CONSTRUCTED SUCCESSFULLY AND LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS WERE ATTEMPTED IN 1989. THE MULTISECTORAL MODEL DISCUSSED IN THIS PAPER PLAYS A CORE ROLE IN THIS FORECASTING SYSTEM. THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE MODEL ARE SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS:(1)IT IS AN ANNUAL MACRO/IO LINKAGE MODEL THAT CAPTURES THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEENE MACROECONOMY AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES;(2)ITS MAIN DATABASES ARE BOTH NEW SNA DATA TIME-SERIES INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES FOR THE YEARS 1970-85 COMPILED BY A REVISED RAS METHOD;(3)INDUSTRIAL DISAGGREGATION IS FOR EIGHT INDUSTRIES IN SNA BUT FOR 54 COMMODITIES ON AN INPUT-OUTPUT BASIS;(4)SNA INSTITUTIONAL SECTORS ARE ALSO DISAGGREGATED INTO THREE ECONOMIC AGENTS (HOUSEHOLDS,ENTERPRISES,AND GENERAL GROVERNMENT):AND(5)THE BASIC MODEL FRAMEWORK FOLLOWS A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM TRADITION, BUT ITS EQUILIBRIUM CHARACTERISTICS BELONG TO A NON-WALRASIAN TEMPORARY DISEQUILIBRIUM IN THE SENSE THAT THE SUPPLY/DEMAND GAP,CONSIDERED AS A SIGNAL OF NON-CLEARANCE IN MARKETS,IS EXPLICITLY INTRODUCED AND AFFECTS THE SECTORAL PRICE-QUANTITY ADJUSTMENT. BASIC SIMULATION TESTS OF THE MODEL SHOWED HIGH PERFORMANCE AND TRACEABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE,A DYNAMIC FINAL TEST DURING 1975-85,SHOWED ERROR RATIOS OF 2.2% FOR REAL GNP AND 0.8% FOR CONSUMER PRICES. THE WORKABILITY ALSO SHOWED REASONABLE PERFORMANCE FOR OTHER SIMULATIONS SUCH AS CHANBGES IN FISCAL POLICY,EXCHANGE RATE,AND OIL PRICES. SINCE THE MODEL PERFORMANCE IS GOOD AS A WHOLE,IT COULD BE USED TO FORECAST THE JAPANESE ECONOMY. THE MODEL HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VARIOUS EXTRAPOLATIONS UP TO THE YEAR 2005 AND HAS PROVIDED QUANTITATIVE INSIGHTS INTO THE EVOLUTION OF JAPANESE ECONOMY AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE.

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