報告書番号

Y00020

タイトル（和文）

国際産業連関表とCGEモデルによる世界経済分析

タイトル（英文）

International I/O Analysis for Asia-Pacific Region and CGE Simulation Experiments for 18 Major Countries

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

グローバリゼーションが進行するなかで、経済の相互依存関係を明示的に捉えた世界経済モデルの開発は、経済・エネルギーの将来展望を行う上で喫緊の課題となっている。本報告は、世界経済モデル開発の第一歩として、国際産業連関（I/O）モデルによって構造分析を行うとともに、計算可能な一般均衡(CGE)モデルを用いて世界18ヵ国を対象に定量分析を行った。主な結果は次の通り。まず、日米、アジア間の経済連関は近年高まりを見せていることが確認された。次に、CGEモデルを用いて、G-7、中国などアジア7ヵ国、ブラジルなど中南米3ヵ国及びロシアを対象に、①外国資本流入増、②輸入価格が10％上昇、③貿易自由化、④2025年を対象とした暫定予測等のシミュレーション分析を行ったところ、ほぼ良好な結果を得た。今後、このモデルを動学化、多部門化、世界リンクを行い、本格的な世界経済・エネルギーの構造分析と予測を実施する。

概要 （英文）

Alongside rapid globalization in industries and increasing international transactions in major economies in the world, a powerful and integrated economic model of world economy is needed to analyze the effects of trade liberalization, international capital movements, and fluctuations of world prices of energy and manufactured products. To this end, the purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, the increasing international linkages among industries are quantitatively analyzed by using the Asian international input-output tables for 1985 and 1990. The results indicate that although several Asian countries such as Korea and China have increased their domestic linkages, there were increasing tendencies of dependencies of Southeast Asian countries with Japan and the US between 1985 and 1990. Second, a simple computable general equilibrium model (so-called 1-2-3 CGE model) was constructed for 18 major countries in the world (G-7 countries, China, India and other five major Asian countries, three Latin-American countries, and Russia). Static simulation experiments were then conducted to quantify the effects of an increase in capital inflows, trade liberalization, an increase in import prices, stagnation in export prices, as well as a tentative economic projection up to 2025.By and large, these experiments exhibit expected performance of the CGE model, and therefore the model will be further refined to appropriately analyse trade and investment linkages among countries, growth effects among countries, by disaggregating sectors, by linking the countries each other, and by introducing dynamic factors such as capital accumulation and technical change.

報告者

キーワード