報告書番号

Y96009

タイトル（和文）

金融不良債券問題の現状

タイトル（英文）

BAD LOANS IN JAPAN S ECONOMY

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

不良債券問題はもう峠を越えたのか，あるいは日本経済にとって依然足枷となるのか。資産価格の下落との関連も含めて，不良債券処理に伴う金融業界，日本経済への影響は明らかにされていない。本報告では，不良債券問題とは何か，そのバブル経済との関連，今回の不良債券問題の特徴や早期解決の必要性を示したうえで，その規模や処理に要する期間等を推計し，不良債券問題処理の経済影響を検討するにあたっての基礎調査と暫定試算を行った。９６年９月時点での金融機関の不良債券の規模は実質３４～３５兆円（貸出残高の約５％に相当）に上ると推定され依然として金融機関にとって大きな重しとなっている。今後経済環境が悪化，とりわけ地価の小幅下落が続く場合には，さらに膨らみ，金融機関が抱える不良債券額のうち約１９兆円の処理が必要となる。その処理の完了には３年程度，９９年一杯まで必要である。

概要 （英文）

IT IS NOT YET CLEAR WHETHER THE JAPANESE ECONOMY HAS PASSED THE FINANCIAL CRISIS CAUSED BY BAD LOANS INHERITED FROMTHE COLLAPSED BUBBLE ECONOMY IN THE LATE 80S. THIS PAPER SURVEYS SOME MAJORPOIONTS OF THE BAD-LOAN PROBLEM IN JAPAN AND ESTIMATES THE REAL VOLUME OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS AND THE TIME REQUIRED TO SETTLE THE PROBLEM. THE MAJOR FINDINGS ARE AS FOLLOWS: (1)BAD LOANS ARE STILL A HEAVYBURDEN FOR JAPAN S BANKS. THE VOLUME OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS AT ALL DEPOSIT-TAKING INSTITUTIONS AT SEPTEMBER 1996 IS \34-35 TRILLION. THIS IS ABOUT 5% OF ALL LOANS, AND IS NEARLY THE SAME RATIO AT THE PEAK IN THE USAIN 1991. (2)UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF CONTINUOUSLY-FALLING OF LAND PRICES, \19 TRILLION IN BAD LOANS SHOULD BE DISPOSED OF REQUIRING 3 YEARS UNTIL 1999 TO WRITE THEM OFF. (3)THE AMOUNT OF BAD LOANS COULD BE MORE INTHE CASE OF CONTINUED LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DECLINING LAND PRICES. (4)ON THE OTHER HAND, THE REPUTATION OF JAPANESE FINACIAL INSTITUTIONS HAS RECOVERED SLIGHTLY AFTER SPRING 1997. THE SCHEDULED INTRODUCTION OF THE PROMPT CORRECTION ACTION (PCA)IN APRIL 1998, AND THE NEW PLANS BY SOME BANKS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE TOKYO BIG BANG, ETC., HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS RECOVERY. THE JAPAN PREMIUM HAS FALLEN FROM THE PEAK OF MORETHAN 0.5% IN AUTUMN 1995. (5)THE BAD-LOAN PROBLEM SHOULD BE SOLVED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BECAUSE FIERCE COMPETITION IN THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRIESWILL START AFTER THE TOKYO BIG BANG.

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