報告書番号

Y97012

タイトル（和文）

電力市場自由化と供給保障

タイトル（英文）

LIBERALIZATION OF POWER MARKETS AND SECURITYOF SUPPLY

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

我が国では，１９９５年の電気事業法の改正で新規電源の競争入札が導入されたが，更なる競争導入に向けての議論が電気事業審議会等の場で行われている。小売りへの競争導入が行われた場合には，長期的に電源のベストミックスが達成されるかどうかなど，供給保障に及ぼす影響が懸念されている。本稿は，電力市場自由化のエネルギー・セキュリティー確保，設備の供給力確保および需要家への安定供給への影響を検討し，電気事業における競争導入と供給保障との整合性確保のあり方について考察した。その結果，電力市場自由化により，将来的な電源のベストミックスの構築は困難になる可能性があること，またその達成が重要な課題となることなどを明らかにした。

概要 （英文）

THIS STUDY INVESTIGATED QUESTIONS OF SECURITY OF SUPPLY IN RELATION TO LIBERALIZATION OF ELECTRICITY MARKETS. THE INVESTIGATION FOCUSED ON SECURITY IN PROCUREMENT OF PRIMARY FUEL, CAPACITY ENLARGEMENT OF FACILITIES TO MEET ELECTRICITY DEMAND, AND RELIABLE SUPPLY TO CUSTOMERS. THE MAIN RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: CONCERNING THE SECURITY OF FUEL SUPPLY, DIFFERENT DEFINITIONS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED IN THE PAST. MODERN VIEWS CONSIDER RESERVES AS A FUNCTION OF PRICE. ACCORDING TO THESE VIEWS, SHORTAGES OF PRIMARY FUELS ARE UNREALISTIC IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DECADES, EVEN IF LIBERALIZATION OF ELECTRICITY MARKETS INCREASES DEMAND FOR PRIMARY FUELS. AN IMPORTANT IMPACT OFTHE LIBERALIZATION OF ELECTRICITY MARKETS IS SEEN IN THE DASH FOR GAS. IT CAN BE ASSUMED THAT NATURAL GAS WILL BE AVAILABLE AT LOW PRICES IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR SEVERAL YEARS TO COME AND SECURITY OF GAS SUPPLIES WILL NOT CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS. GAS-FIRED POWER STATIONS WILL BE COMPETITIVE NOT ONLY AS PROVIDERS OF PEAK-CAPACITY, BUT ALSO IN THE BASE-LOAD SECTOR. THE COMPETITIVENESS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY WILL DECREASE IN SUCH A SITUATION. THESE CONCLUSIONS CAN BE DRAWN FROM EITHER A POOL MODEL ORA WHEELING MODEL. COMPARED TO GAS, OIL PRICES HAVE NOT BEEN STABLE IN THE PAST (OIL PRICE SHODKS IN 1973/74 AND 1979/80). AFTER THE FAILURE OF OPEC S HIGH-PRICE POLICY IN THE 1970S AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE 1980S, OIL PRICES DECREASED SHARPLY IN 1985/86 AND HAVE ALMOST REACHED 1973 PRICES IN REAL TERMS. AS EXPERIENCE SHOWS, THE PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND IS MUCH HIGHER IN THE LONG-RUN THAN IN THE SHORT-RUN. LOWER PRICES MAY LEAD TO HIGHER CONSUMPTION OF OIL AND MIGHT ACCORDINGLY INCREASE OPEC S PRODUCTION SHARE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A RENAISSANCE OF OPEC S MARKET POWER. CONCERNING THE IMPACT OF LIBERALIZATION ON INVESTMENTS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THE MARKET IS SUPPOSED TO PROVIDE A COORDINATIVE FUNCTION. SINCE A PERFECT MARKET FOR INFORMATION WILL NOT EVOLVE, INVESTMENT PLANS WILL NOT BE COORDI

報告者

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