報告書番号

580008

タイトル（和文）

供給ショックの経済学：展望

タイトル（英文）

SUPPLY SHOCK ECONOMICS:A SURVEY

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本稿は，石油危機に代表される「供給ショック」の短期に於けるマクロ経済的含意の検討を目的とした展望論文である。以下では，供給ショック後に生ずるスタグフレーションや政策トリレンマの発生メカニズムを解明するための理論的枠組を提示するいくつかの試みが紹介され，アコモデーションの含意や世界的なスタグフレーションからの回復過程に於ける国際的調整の困難さについても言及される。

概要 （英文）

THIS IS A SURVEY OF CURRENT TOPICS IN THE FIELD OF SUPPLY SHOCK ECONOMICS.THE SUPPLY SHOCK ECONOMICS PARTICULARY FOCUSES ON SUCH PHENOMENA AS OIL CRISIS,COMMODITY BOOM,WAGE EXPLOSION,ETC. IN THIS PAPER,AFTER QUICK REVIEW OF ALTERNATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSES OF STAGFLATIONARY PHENOMENA,THEORETICALLY EXAMINED IS THE PROCESS OFRECOVERY FROM SUPPLY SHOCK INITIATED STAGFLATION.OUR MAIN CONCERN COVERS TYPICAL ISSUES ABOUT MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF SUPPLY SHOCKS IN THE SHORT RUN OPEN ECONOMY,AMONG OTHER THINGS,THE VICIOUS CIRCLE PHENOMENON AND THE POLICY TRILEMMA. THOROUGH UNDERSTANDING OF THE IMPLICATIONS NEEDS A VERIFICATION OF THE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE SCHEME.IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE PHILLIPS RELATION AND THE FLOATING SYSTEM MIGHT GENERATE THE VICIOUS OR VIRTUOUS CIRCLE DEPENDING ON THE PROPENSITY TO ACCOMMODATE INFLATION. EVALUATIONS OF THE ACCOMMODATION POLICY ARE ALSO PRESENTED FROM A CRITICAL VIEWPOINT. FINALLY,DIFFICULTIES IN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE ADJUSTMENT(SO-CALLED KEYNESIAN LOCOMOTIVEPOLICY)FOR RECOVERY ARE MENTIONED AND THE CAUSES OF THEM ARE IDENTIFIED.

報告者

キーワード