報告書番号

580011

タイトル（和文）

電気事業資金問題の長期展望－中間報告（１）－

タイトル（英文）

A FINANCIAL MODEL OF JAPANESE ELECTRIC POWERINDUSTRY

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本研究は，電気事業資金問題の長期展望のために，電力財務モデルを構築し，電気事業の財務的側面に焦点をあてながら，電気事業の発展過程を解明するとともに，２０００年に至るプロセスを予測するためのテストを行なったものである。電力財務モデルは需要，設備投資，生産，資金調達，収入，費用等の７ブロックから構成されている。モデルの特色は，電力需給バランス，電力収支バランス，資金バランス，貸借対照表バランスの４つのバランス式が同時に解かれることによって，電力所要投資額と資金調達の手段が求められることである。電力財務モデルは，４０本の行動方程式を含む８０個の内生変数から構成され，構造方程式は１９５８－１９７９年を標本期間とする年度ベースの観測値で推定され，モデルのテストは最終法によって行なった。

概要 （英文）

IN THIS PAPER,WE PRESENT A FINANCIAL MODEL OF ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY AND ANALYSE THE FINANCING PROBLEMS OF ITS INDUSTRY.WE INTEND TO PROSPECT THE FUTURE CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AND ITS FINANCING OF THE INDUSTRY USING THIS MODEL. THE MODEL CONSISTS OF 7 BLOCKS: DEMAND FOR POWER,CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND EQUIPMENTS,FINANCING,EXPENDITURE,REVENUE,PRODUCTION OF POWER AND BALANCE SHEETS.THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE MODEL IS THE INTRODUCTION OF 4 BALANCE IDENTITIES SUCH AS DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCE,REVENUE-EXPENDITURE BALANCE,INVESTMENT-FINANCING BALANCE AND ASSET-LIABILITY BALANCE WHICH ARE SOLVED SIMULTANEOUSLY. THE MODEL CONTAINS ABOUT 40 BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS AND 80 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES.STOCHASTIC EQUATIONS ARE FITTED TO YEARLY OBSERVATIONS FOR THE SAMPLE PERIOD1958-1979 AND THE MODEL IS TESTED BY THE FINAL METHOD. THE FINDINGS OFTHIS STUDY CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS. 1)IN ORDER TO MEET THE RAPID GROWTH OF DEMAND FOR POWER(AVERAGE YEARLY GROWTH RATE,8%),THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY WAS NEEDED A VAST SUM OF CAPITAL INVESTMENTS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION FACILITIES,THAT IS,THE ACCUMULATED VALUES OF INVESTMENT WERE 18 TRILLION YEN FOR 1965-1979. 2)DEPENDING LARGELY ON OUTSIDE SOURCES OF FINANCING,THE RATIO OF INTERNAL GENERATED FOUNDS OF UTILITY IS DECLINING DRASTICALLY DURING THE PERIOD. 3)OWING TO THE RESTRICTION OF THE ISSUANCE OF BONDS AND BIG LOAN,ELECTRIC UTILITIES WILL BE MAKING SERIOUS EFFORTS TO DIVERSIFY THE SOURCES FOR ADDITIONAL FUNDS INCLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF FOREIGN BONDS,AS WELL AS CONSERVING FUNDS BY THE JOINT INVESTMENT.

報告者

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