報告書番号

U97049

タイトル（和文）

ＮＣＡＲ共同研究「温暖化時の台風予測モデルの開発（その２）」領域モデルによる台風の再現性の検討

タイトル（英文）

CRIEPI-NCAR COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: DEVELOPMENT OF NUMERICAL TYPHOON MODEL FOR GLOBAL WARMING PREDICTION II-INVESTIGATION OF THE REPRODUCIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES USING LIMITED-AREA MODEL

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

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概要 （英文）

WE CONDUCTED A NUMBER OF NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON PREDICTION OF TYPHOONS 9018 AND 9019 USING A LIMITED-AREA MODEL TO INVESTIGATE ITS SUITABILITY AS A HIGH-RESOLUTION TYPHOON MODEL FOR OUR GLOBAL WARMING STUDY. TO IMPROVE THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL, THE DIABATIC INITIALIZATION DESIGNED BY KASAHARA ET AL. (1996) AND THE RELAXED ARAKAWA-SCHUBERT (RAS) CUMULUS SCHEME BY MOORTHI AND SUAREZ (1992) WERE INCORPORATED. THE RAS SCHEME CAN BE USED INSTEAD OF THE STANDARD KUOSCHEME IN THE MODEL. DIABATIC INITIALIZATION RESULTS IN SUCCESSFUL SIMULATION OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITHOUT SPIN-UP PROBLEMS. SINCE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH LATENT HEAT RELEASE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE, WHICH LEADS TO THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF TYPHOONS, INITIALIZATION HAS A GREAT IMPACT ON PREDICTION OF TYPHOON GENESIS. THEINITIALIZATION HELPS REDUCE PREDICTION ERROR IN TERMS OF INTENSITY ANDMOVING TRACK. THE REPRODUCIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BY THE MODEL WITH THE RAS SCHEME IS REMARKABLE, AND THE SCHEME IS BETTER THAN THE KUO SCHEME FOR INTENSITY PREDICTION OF DEVELOPING TYPHOONS. HOWEVER, THE TRACK PREDICTION ERROR IN THE MODEL WITH THE RAS SCHEME TENDS TO INCREASE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DIABATIC INITIALIZATION.

報告者

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