報告書番号

Y02014

タイトル（和文）

RPS下における新エネルギー導入量と対策費用の分析

タイトル（英文）

The Amount of Renewable Energy and Additional Costs under the Renewable Portfolio Standards in Japan

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

温室効果ガスの排出抑制、より長期的には枯渇性資源に対する依存からの脱却を視野に入れ、新エネルギーの導入拡大が期待される。我が国においても、電気事業者に対して、新エネルギーによって発電された電力を一定量利用することを義務付けるRPS制度が、2003年度から全面施行される。本研究では、RPS下における新エネルギー導入量、環境価値の取引価格、および、対策費用を推定した。主な成果は次のとおりである。(1)風力および一般廃棄物によるバイオマス発電が、履行に際して主要な割合を占める。また、供給地域をこえた取引や、電気事業者間の肩代わりの活用、前倒しの対応が有効である。(2)2010年度における取引価格は5.8円/kWh(2003年度価値換算で4.3円/kWh)と推定される。(3)電気事業者に生じる当面の追加的対策費用は、2010年度において約930億円、販売電力量に対して約0.1円/kWhと推定される。

概要 （英文）

Renewable energy has environmental benefits as less emission resources and energy security benefits as non fossil fuel resources. The Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which will be enforced from 2003 in Japan, is a compulsory policy that about 1.35% of each retail supplier’s electricity sales in 2010 come from renewable energy generation by photovoltaics, wind, biomass, geothermal and small hydro. This study provides a quantitative analysis of a growth in installed capacity of each renewable resource and the economic impacts on retail suppliers, in order to give direction to the effective strategy under the RPS. We assume supply curve for renewable generations based on a detailed resource assessment, and derive optimal renewable portfolio and renewable energy credit price. Main findings are as follows: (1)Wind power and waste power regarded as biomass energy would provide the majority of the total renewable generation. Renewable energy supply would be varied with regions due to its regional resource endowment. Therefore, purchasing credits from certificated renewable generators in other regions and the credit trading between retail suppliers would enable effective implementation of the RPS. In addition, front loaded action would be encouraged in preparing for the rapid increasing target.(2)Renewable energy credit price would be about 5.8 yen/kWh in 2010 (4.3 yen/kWh in 2003 value), in case where their value of electric power would be 4 yen/kWh. Sensitivity analysis shows that the constituent of renewable portfolio and economic impacts depend on the assumption of avoided cost for the power system.(3)Additional cost for retail suppliers is estimated to reach 93 billion yen in 2010, which raises retail price by 0.1 yen/kWh.

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