Development of a Decision Support System for Biomass Energy Based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects in Asia -The Location Selection Tool of Biomass Power Plant-
There are widely recognized among the Japanese power utility industry the attractiveness of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), especially of biomass energy based opportunities in Asia. Targeting to effectively judge viability of such possibilities, the author developed an integrated decision support system comprising the three tools, namely 1) identifying the distribution of natural resources, 2) finding optimal locations for conversion facilities, and 3) assessing overall profitability. Each of the three subsystems is characterized as follows:
1) The resource identification tool is capable for searching quickly a wide area of biomass resource distribution using satellite images and supplementary numerical data such as agricultural statistics. The tool also enables efficient and accurate visualization of biomass distribution maps at different scales, from national level to district level.
2) The location optimization tool finds optimal spots for conversion facilities for procured and/or transported biomass, taking into account, besides quantities of available biomass materials, demands for electricity and/or heat, stability of biomass supply, availability of transportation and power transmission infrastructure, and possible impacts on sustainability of regional economic growth. The tool finds solutions against a set of evaluation criteria by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
3) The profitability assessment tool, based upon optimal locations identified by the optimization, analyzes the lowest cost options for biomass energy procurement. The tool assesses major cost items, such as purchase as well as costs for procurement and transportation against the amount of produced biomass. Project profitability is then evaluated by the total next present value encompassing purchase, procurement and transportation costs, together with those costs for construction, maintenance and wages given by assumptions, and sales of electricity and/or CO2 credits.
Through a case study for Thailand, the system proves itself adequately applicable to the three-staged assessment of biomass projects in an efficient way. The system could be further integrated with other aspects, such as local environmental impacts as well as life cycle considerations with energy profit ratio and/or CO2 emission.
|クリーン開発メカニズム||Clean Development Mechanism|