報告書番号

Z83002

タイトル（和文）

地域経済の長期展望

タイトル（英文）

A LONG-TERM OUTLOOK OF THE REGIONAI ECONOMY OF JAPAN BY STUDY COMMITTEE FOR LONG-TERM ENERGY STRATEGIES ECONOMIC STUDY GROUP

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本研究では９電力会社の供給地域にほぼ対応する全国９地域の長期経済展望を行った。そのため，全国９地域を対象に２０００年あるいは２０３０年までの，工業用水，生活用水，工業用地，宅地，社会資本，労働力などの地域別生産要素・資源の開発・確保に要する費用の累積額を最小にするためには，いかなる産業の地域配置が望ましいかを分析するための線型計画モデルを開発した。２０００年までのモデル分析の結果では，製造業に占める比重が大幅に上昇する加工組立型産業を中心に，産業の地方分散が緩やかに進展し，中央３地域が生産シェアを現在よりも減少させるが，それでもなお，それら地域でも５０％以上の生産の集中が予想される。また分析を２０３０年までに伸ばしたモデルにより，２０００年時点をみてもほぼ同様の結果になる。２０００年から２０３０年を展望すると，人口と工業が北に動いて，全国シェアでみて北海道が増，中央が減，西が横ばいとな

概要 （英文）

THE MAIN PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT IS TO PRESENT NUMERICAL RESULTS OF A LONG TERM PROSPECT OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY OF JAPAN UP TO 2000.FOR THE REFERENCE OF THE R&D IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY, WE EXTEND THE ANALYSIS TO 2030. IN THE PROCESS OF THE STUDY,WE DEVELOPED A DYNAMIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL NAMED THE REGIONAL ALLOCATION LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL DEKEN-VERSION 2(REALM D2)TO DISCUSS AN OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES, RESOURCES, POPULATION AND SO ON. THE REALM D2 MINIMIZES THE SUM OF THE OVER-TIME REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTCOSTS OF THE PRODUCTIVE RESOURCES I.E., WATER, LAND, SOC AND SO FORTH UNDER THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE MACRO ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES.IN ORDER TO CHECK THE DIFFERENCE OF THE REGIONAL ALLOCATION CAUSED BY THE TERMINAL CONDITION OF THE REALM D2,WE SOLVED THE MAIN MODEL WHICH COVERS THE REGIONAL ECONOMY UP TO 2000 AND THE EXTENDED MODEL WHERE THE TIME HORIZON IS EXTENDED TO 2030. THE RESULT OF THE CALCULATION OF THE TWO VESIONS IN THE REALM D2 SHOWED THAT THERE WAS NO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE IN THE ALLOCATION OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES UP TO 2000.OUR MAIN PROSPECT IS AS FOLLOWS. 1.THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRODUCTION AND POPULATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE DISPERSION TO THE LESS DEVELOPED REGIONS FROM THE CENTRAL THREE ADVANCED REGIONS (KANTO.CHUBU AND KANSAI). 2.THE GROWTH RATE OF MACHINARY SECTOR WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FUTURE STRUCTURE OF EVERY REGIONAL ECONOMY,SINCE IT WILL STILL BE THE LEADING INDUSTRY OF JAPAN.ON THE OTHER HAND,THE GROWTH RATE OF THE HEAVY INDUSTRY SUCH AS PRIMARY METAL AND CHEMISTRY WILL DECREASE AND THE NEWLY BIG INVESTMENT CANNOT BE COSIDERABLE. 3.HOWEVER,THE DISPERSION WILL BE MODERATE COMPARINGTHE ONE LEAD BY THE HEAVY INDUSTRY.IT IS DUE TO THE DIFFERENT CONFIGURATION OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS.

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