報告書番号

Y04011

タイトル（和文）

数値目標達成手段としての炭素税に関する分析 -―日本と欧州における導入シミュレーション―-

タイトル（英文）

An Analysis of Carbon Tax as a Method for the Achievement of Numerical Target - Simulation of the Introduction for Japan and EU Countries -

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

炭素税の価格効果によって、日本と欧州４カ国が同時にCO2削減を行った場合と、日本が単独にCO2削減を行った場合のそれぞれのケースに関して、当所の長期経済予測システムを使って定量的に分析した。前者のケースでは、CO2削減による化石燃料需要の減少が、化石燃料の国際価格を低下させ、その結果、他の地域でCO2排出量が増加する「炭素リーケージ」についても分析した。後者のケースでは、炭素税の導入が経済成長率など国内経済に与える影響についても評価した。

概要 （英文）

This study quantitatively analyzes the width of required levels of carbon tax for Japan internationally and domestically by using the long-term economic forecasting system of CRIEPI. The targets are set as follows: Japan and major four EU member countries (UK, France, Germany, and Italy) will reduce their CO2 emission for 2008 - 2012 to the same percentages that are their targets for reducing global warming gases as a whole in the international case (6% for Japan). In the domestic case, Japan will reduce her CO2 emission originated from energy combustion in 2010, 2020, and 2030 to 0%, 7%, and 12% below the level in 1990 respectively. The results of the analyses are as follows: (1) In the international case, required tax rates for major four EU member countries (averages in 2008-2012) are only 1/3 - 1/2 levels for Japan. The reason of the higher tax rate for Japan is (1) the required reduction percentage for Japan from their reference cases where carbon tax is not imposed is higher than those in EU countries, and (2) the price of natural gas is higher in Japan.(2) In the international case, international prices of fossil fuels will fall by around 10% compared with the reference case. As a result, about one third of CO2 emission decreased in Japan and EU will increase in other regions from the reference case. This percentage corresponds to so-called ﾒcarbon leakageﾓ.(3) In the domestic case, the scenarios of economic growth will affect required tax rates seriously. Energy consumption and CO2 emission become large according to economic growth, even through the effect of accelerated energy conservation will be considered. Consequently, the differences in required tax rates between high and low economic growth cases will vary about 3.5 times in 2010 and 30 times in 2030 respectively.(4) In the domestic case, high tax rates will decrease export and capital investment by losing international competitiveness. The gaps in the decreases in real GDP between high and low economic growth cases will be about 3 times in 2010 and 8 times in 2030 respectively according to the differences in economic scenarios.

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