報告書番号

Y04022

タイトル（和文）

産業･業務部門自家用発電設備の普及動向分析

タイトル（英文）

Analysis of histrical capacity trend of self-generation in the industrial and commercial sector

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

将来の普及動向分析への適用可能性を考慮し、業種別、原動機別の購入電力量に対する設備容量のトレンドを燃料価格や生産額などで説明する推定モデルについて回帰分析を行った。実績データによる外挿値や業種別の背景、使用燃料等に基づいて推定モデルの妥当性を検討した。燃料価格に基づく推定モデルは紙・パルプの蒸気タービンなど、古くから普及が進んでいた業種・原動機で有効である一方、普及から日が浅い原動機では燃料価格では説明できないことが多い。また業種によっては自家発シェアが生産額に連動することが明らかとなった。また、得られた推定モデルにより、燃料価格高騰が分散型電源の普及に与える影響などを評価した。

概要 （英文）

This paper analyzes a model of customer adoption of self-generation facilities in the industrial and commercial sectors in Japan, including distributed generation (DG) and large power plants over a hundred MW. Historical capacity trends of self-generation facilities by steam turbine (ST), diesel engine (DE), gas turbine (GT), and gas engine (GE) show different diffusion patterns. The trends are also different by sectors. We conducted regression an analysis of time-series data of self-generating facilities during 1983-2001 for each prime mover in each sector. Three models are examined considering the availability of data including the forecasts: An econometric model which explains the substitution of the self-generation and the purchased power based on the relative fuel price (to electricity price); an auto-regression model of the ratio (self generation ratio) of the installed capacity of self-generating facilities to the purchased power from an utility; and a regression model taking account of the industrial production based on the auto-regression model The econometric models well fit the adoption of ST and DE in the sectors, the diffusion of which started long time ago. For instance, the adoption of ST in the manufacture of pulp, paper and paper product is expressed by the relative coal price. On the other hand, the econometric model rarely fit the adoption of newly and rapidly diffused DG such as GT. The adoptions of such DGs are explained better by the regression model taking account of the industrial output. The regression model also fits the adoption of ST in the manufacture of chemical and allied products, and the manufacture of textile mil products. The industrial production can have either a positive effect or a negative effect, depending on the sector. The auto-regression model well fits the cases if the past trend of the self-generation ratio is constant. The model should be used for forecasting in the short term. Although examined models cannot explain the adoption of GE in most of the sectors, the well-fitted models cover three-fourth of all the self-generation facilities in capacity.

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