財団法人 電力中央研究所

電力中央研究所 研究報告書(電力中央研究所報告)
[CRIEPI Research Report]

研究報告書「電力中央研究所報告」は当研究所の研究成果を取りまとめた刊行物として、昭和28年より発行されております。 一部の研究報告書はPDF形式で全文をダウンロードすることができます。 ダウンロードの際には、当サイトの利用規約を遵守の上ご利用ください。

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研究報告書 詳細情報
[Detailed Information]

報告書番号 [Report Number]
2030年までの日本経済中期展望 - マクロ経済・財政・産業構造 -
Projections for the Japanese Economy towards 2030 -Macroeconomy, Fiscal Reconstruction and Industrial Structure-
概要 (図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております)
3)年金給付を2012年以降、1人当たり増加率で毎年1%引き下げた場合には、2020年で約3.2 兆円、30年で7.2 兆円のPB(社会保障基金含む一般政府ベース)改善効果がある。これは、消費税率1.5〜3%程度の引き上げの効果に相当する。その一方で、通期平均成長率は、税率上昇・物価押し上げに伴う可処分所得減少を通じた消費低下から約0.1%ポイント引き下げられる。成長鈍化は税収減につながり、PB(国・地方計)は、むしろ小幅悪化する。
Hatoyama Cabinet was formed on September 16th, 2009 and its fiscal policy has attracted attention since then. After the world financial crisis, a large-scale fiscal stimulative policy executed in developed countries, including Japan and China, has played a certain role in their economic recovery. This report shows an outlook for the Japanese economy toward 2030 and we especially pay attention to the fiscal reconstruction and industrial structure by using the macroeconomic-fiscal linked econometric model and input-output model. Main forecasting results and some of the simulation results are as follows:
i) The average annual growth rate of real GDP toward 2030 will be 1.2%. The economy will not be able to get out of the low growth path and stable price because of the loose demand and supply conditions in the reference case. The primary balance of the government (PBG, the fiscal balance less net interest payment/receipt) will not go into the black due to the low increase of the tax revenue throughout the forecasting period (-29.0 trillion yen and -4.7% per nominal GDP in 2030). In the case of a strong overseas economy and weak yen rate etc., the average growth rate will be 1.9% (high growth scenario) and with a weak overseas economy and strong yen rate, it will be 0.9% (low growth scenario), from 2009 to 2030.
ii) In the case of a consecutive five percent hike of the consumption tax rate after 2014 (2014 and 2015 by 2% each, 2016 by 1% raised), the PBG will go into the black in 2027 (in 2022 in the case of seven percent hike (2014 by 3%, 2015 and 2016 by 2% raised) )in the high growth scenario. But in that case, the real GDP growth rate will be 1.8%, decreased by 0.1% point from 2009 to 2030 compared to the economic growth rate without consumption tax rate hike. In the reference case with moderate overseas economic growth, even the seven percent hike of the consumption tax rate will not make the PBG into the black in 2030.
iii) In terms of growth of value added by industry in the reference case, agricultural industry will tend to shrink, while electronic and communication equipment, household electric appliances, and telecommunication and broadcasting will grow rapidly from 2005 to 2020, which means these industries become an engine of the medium-term economic growth.
報告書年度 [Report's Fiscal Year]
発行年月 [Issued Year / Month]
報告者 [Author]




門多 治

社会経済研究所 エネルギー事業政策領域

浜潟 純大

社会経済研究所 エネルギー事業政策領域

服部 恒明


キーワード [Keywords]
和文 英文
日本経済 Japanese Economy
2030年の経済展望 Economic Outlook for the Year 2030
財政再建 Fiscal reconstruction
産業展望 Industrial Outlook
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