財団法人 電力中央研究所

電力中央研究所 研究報告書(電力中央研究所報告)
[CRIEPI Research Report]

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研究報告書 詳細情報
[Detailed Information]

報告書番号 [Report Number]
Spatial CGE Model for Analyzing Impact of Carbon Tax Imposition on Regional Economies of Japan
To apply the conventional CGE model for analyzing the impact of carbon tax imposition on regional economies of Japan, the model must be modified to match the following requirements. Firstly, due to a vast variety in the production structure and consumption preference among regions in the Japanese economy, the model must take into account the linkages between economic systems and the spillover and possible feedback effects that one region may have on another. Namely, the spatial aspect must be explicitly introduced into the modeling framework. This kind of model is called the spatial CGE model. Secondly, it is preferable that the carbon emission is particularly associated with the energy inputs/consumptions, although the existing models usually calculate the emission level on the aggregated level of production outputs. Thirdly, the impact of relative price change resulting from the carbon tax on the interregional regime shift in the consumption of household and the output level of production sectors must be verified.
The first objective is fulfilled by the development of spatial CGE model for evaluating the tax system reform in Japan by CRIEPI (2008). However, the last two necessities still call for a further development. CRIEPI (2011) have compiled the interregional energy social accounting matrix (SAM) database of Japan that consistently reflects all the flows of goods, services and income distribution between all economic agents in the economy. This database also satisfies all the requirements listed above and, hence, can be used as an integral part of the benchmark data set for analyzing environmental tax policies effectively.
The main objective of this report is to develop the spatial CGE model for analyzing impact of carbon tax imposition on regional economies of Japan. To illustrate the potential usefulness of the proposed model, a simple simulation is subsequently conducted under the environment tax scheme as a provision against the global warming under the 2011 tax reform plan proposed by the Ministry of the Environment (2010). According to the increase in energy prices due to the carbon tax imposition, the impacts on the consumption of household, the output level of production sectors both on sectoral and prefectural basis are examined. Finally, the sensitivity analysis on the critical parameter is also carried out to verify the reliability of the proposed model.
Our simulation results reveal that the environment tax scheme proposed by the Ministry of the Environment has only minor effects on the Japanese economy. The level of carbon dioxide emission is reduced by just 1.096% as compared to emission level in 2000, where the decrease in level of gross domestic product (GDP) is 18.30 billion yen or 0.004% of level in 2000.
The sensitivity analysis on the critical parameter of the model - the elasticity of substitution parameter - proofs that the qualitative results from the carbon tax simulation are, to some extent, robust and the reliability of our proposed model is partly approved.
概要 (図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております)
報告書年度 [Report's Fiscal Year]
発行年月 [Issued Year / Month]
報告者 [Author]




B. Pongsun

社会経済研究所 地域政策領域

田口 裕史

社会経済研究所 地域政策領域

キーワード [Keywords]
和文 英文
空間一般均衡モデル Spatial CGE Model
炭素税 Carbon Tax
地域エネルギー消費 Regional Energy Consumption
多地域産業連関表 Multi-Regional Input-Output Table
厚生評価分析 Welfare Analysis
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