報告書番号

Y92006

タイトル（和文）

日本の海外直接投資の計量モデル分析

タイトル（英文）

MODELING JAPANESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

日本の直接投資および海外生産動向を把握するためのプロトタイプの計量経済モデルを作成し，円高と世界貿易拡大のシミュレーション分析を行った。モデルの主要な特徴は次の通りである。１海外直接投資（現地法人固定資産額）の動向は，８産業に分割され海外現地法人の生産・販売動向との関連で説明されている。２海外生産に伴う輸出代替（輸出抑制），輸出補完（輸出促進），逆輸入（現地法人からの輸入）の３つの重要な効果が明示的に促えられているため，従来の分析と異なり，海外生産を通じた輸出入に及ぼす影響についても計測できる。

概要 （英文）

THE SHARP APPRECIATION OF THE JAPANESE YEN AFTER THE 1985 PLAZA AGREEMENT FORCED MANY JAPANESE COMPANIES TO INVEST ABROAD. THE SUBSIDIARIE S OVERSEAS PRODUCTION IS HAVING A GREAT IMPACT ON BOTH THE JAPANESE AND HOST COUNTRIE S ECONOMIES. GIVEN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES,IT IS IMPORTANT TO ANALYZE THE MOVEMENT OF JAPANESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ITS IMPACT ON THE JAPANESE ECONOMY. THIS PAPER PRESENTS A (PROTOTYPE)ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF JAPANESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTAND OVERSEAS PRODUCTION. THE FEATURES OF THIS MODEL ARE AS FOLLOWS: (A)JAPANESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FOREIGN AFFILIATE S BOOK VALUE OF LONG TERM CAPITAL ASSETS)ARE ASSOCIATED WITH OVERSEAS PRODUCTION BY EIGHT INDUSTRIES. (B)THE EXPORT DISPLACEMENT,ASSOCIATED EXPORTS,AND RE-IMPORT EFFECTS ARE INTRODUCED IN THE MODEL TO ANALYZE THE INDIRECT EFFECTSOF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON JAPAN S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS. FROM THE SIMULATION WE REACHED THE FOLLOWING RESULTS. APPRECIATION OF THE YEN SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKENS JAPANESE INTERNATIONAL PRICE COMPETITIVENESS AND ENHANCES JAPANESE OVERSEAS PRODUCATION. THESE DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS SHOULD HAVE REDUCED THE JAPANESE TRADE SURPLUS BY A LARGE AMOUNT. THEMAGNITUDE OF THE REDUCTION SHOLD SHOULD HAVE BEEN SIMILAR TO THE 1982-84 APPRECIATED YEN SIMULATION.

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