報告書番号

Y94008

タイトル（和文）

家庭部門におけるＤＳＭプログラムの選択と電力消費の分析手法

タイトル（英文）

METHOD FOR ANALYZING RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMER S CHOICE OF DSM PROGRAMS AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本研究は、ＤＳＭの評価を行なう手法としてプログラムの選択と電力消費を整合的に分析する計量経済学的アプローチを取り上げ、手法の特徴、問題点、適用例に関する調査を行なった。結果は次の２点に要約される。（１）選択行動と電力消費の相関関係から生じる「自己選択の効果」によって、ＤＳＭプログラムの評価にバイアスが生じる危険性があるため、操作変数法などを用いて除去する必要がある。（２）アメリカの家庭を対象とした料金実験では、昼夜の価格比率を２倍から３倍に設定したケースにおいて、価格効果が自己選択の効果の２．５倍ないし４倍と大幅に上回る結果となった。

概要 （英文）

SINCE PEAK DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED IN RECENT YEARS, DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT (DSM) IS DRAWING ATTENTION FROM JAPANESE UTILITIES. EVALUATION OF DSM PROGRAMS REQUIRES CONSISTENT ANALYSIS OF CUSTOMER CHOICE OF DSM PROGRAMS AND TIME-OF-USE CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY. THE METHODS FOR ANALYZING CUSTOMER CHOICE OF DSM PROGRAMS AND CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY ARE EXAMINED IN THIS PAPER.THE MAIN FINDINGS ARE SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS: 1.TO MEASURE THE IMPACT OF DSM PROGRAMS, POST-PROGRAM CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY WAS COMPARED BETWEEN PROGRAM PARTICIPANTS AND NON-PARTICIPANTS. SUCH COMPARISON, HOWEVER, MAY INDUCE BIASED ESTIMATES OF THE PROGRAM IMPACT, BECAUSE THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BETWEEN THESE TWO GROUPS DUE TO UNOBSERVABLE FACTORS SUCH AS CUSTOMER ATTITUDE TO DSM PROGRAMS. THIS BIAS, CALLED SELECTIVITY BIAS, CAN BE ELIMINATED USING ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES SUCH AS THE INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE METHODS. 2.THEEVALUATION OF DSM PROGRAMS CONSISTS OF THREE STEPS: PLANNING, DATA DEVELOPMENT, AND IMPACT MEASUREMENT. AT THE PLANNING STAGE, THE OBJECTIVESOF EACH PROGRAM SHOULD BE CLARIFIED. THEN DATA ARE COLLECTED FROM VARIOUS SOURCES SUCH AS LOAD SURVEYS, BILLING RECORDS AND MAILING SURVEYS. FINALLY, PROGRAM IMPACTS ARE MEASURED BASED ON AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH.THE DISCRETE/CONTINUOUS MODEL, WHICH DEALS WITH PROGRAM CHOICE AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN A CONSISTENT MANNER, HAS DESIRABLE FEATURES FROM A THEORETICAL POINT OF VIEW. HOWEVER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO APPLY BECAUSE OF ITS HIGH NON-LINEARITY. TO GET REASONABLE ESTIMATES, FUNCTIONAL FORMS SHOULD BE EXAMINED PRIOR TO ESTIMATION. 3.TIME-OF-DAY (TOD) PRICINGIS ONE OF THE MAIN PROGRAMS FOR DSM IN JAPANESE UTILITIES. PRICE EFFECTS ON TOD CONSUMPTION ARE IMPORTANT FOR EVALUATING TOD PRICING. IN ADDITION, SELECTIVITY EFFECTS, WHICH INDUCE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION WITHOUT CHANGING TOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, SHOULD BE EXAMINED, BECAUSE THESE EFFECTS MAY COUNTERVAIL PRICE EFFECTS. PRE

報告者

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