報告書番号

Y97021

タイトル（和文）

統合資源計画モデルの開発と蓄熱式空調システム普及方策への適用

タイトル（英文）

DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO PENETRATION PROGRAM OF THERMAL STORAGE AIR-CONDITIONING SYSTEM

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

供給サイドだけでなく，需要家サイドの資源（ＤＳＭ）も電源計画の中で同時に最適化できる統合資源計画モデルのプロトタイプを開発した。ＤＳＭ促進費用として普及奨励金とＤＳＭ普及に伴う電気料金収入の減少分を考慮し，最適なＤＳＭ普及規模や導入助成額を内生的に決定する。事務所ビルに対する蓄熱式空調システムの普及方策をケーススタディとして取り上げて，モデル分析を行った。ＤＳＭ費用における料金減収分やＤＳＭ機器の量産効果の有無が，最適な普及規模や費用対効果，助成策に大きく影響することが分かった。特に，量産効果を考慮した場合，量産効果を先取りして計画期間初期に普及奨励金を厚くしＤＳＭ導入を促す，という結果を得た。従来，電源計画と外生的に決めていた普及規模や負荷率改善目標，また望ましい助成策を本ＩＲＰモデルによって最適に決めることが可能になった。

概要 （英文）

UNDER THE INTRODUCTION OF COMPETITION IN THEELECTRIC POWER MARKET IN JAPAN, THE UTILITY REQUIRES MORE COST-EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF POWER SYSTEMS. DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT (DSM) HAS BEEN ATTRACTING ATTENTION SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO SOLVE SUCH DIFFICULTIES OF THE POWER SYSTEM MANAGEMENT AS A DECREASING LOAD FACTOR OF POWER SYSTEMS, WHICH CAUSES INEFFICIENT INVESTMENT IN POWER GENERATION, AND SITING CONDITIONS OF NEW POWER PLANTS. DSM CAN BE REGARDED AS AN ALTERNATIVE POWER RESOURCE ON THE DEMAND SIDE TO THE SUPPLY-SIDE ONES AND, TO PROMOTE IT IN THE POWER SYSTEM, IT IS NECESSARY TO STUDY ITS LONG-TERM COST-EFFECTIVENESS AS WELL AS FOR THE SHORT-TERM ONE. TO ACHIEVE THIS OBJECTIVE, WE HAVE DEVELOPED APROTOTYPE MODEL OF INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING (IRP) WHICH OPTIMIZES DYNAMICALLY THE PROMOTION OF DSM PROGRAM/TECHNOLOGY IN THE POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION IN COMPARISON WITH SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES. THIS MODEL TREATS DSM PROMOTION COST OF THE UTILITY AS INCENTIVE PAYMENT TO PROGRAM PARTICIPANTS AND DECREASE IN SALES REVENUE CAUSED BY CHANGE OF LOAD DEMAND. TECHNOLOGICAL LEARNING OF DSM TECHNOLOGY IS INCORPORATED ENDOGENOUSLY INTO THE MODEL, WHICH IS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN ANALYZING THE LONG-TERM COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF A MASS PRODUCTIVE TECHNOLOGY AND PROMOTION PROGRAM. WE EVALUATED MARKET PENETRATION, COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF THE DSM PROGRAM/TECHNOLOGY AND THE RESULTING EFFECT IN THE POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION THROUGH A CASE STUDY FOR AIR-CONDITIONING DEMAND INTHE COMMERCIAL SECTOR, A THERMAL STORAGE AIR-CONDITIONING SYSTEM, THATIS SUPPOSED TO BE THE MOST PROMISING DSM PROGRAM IN JAPAN. THE IMPLICATION IN AN INCENTIVE SYSTEM WOULD BE ALSO MENTIONED BASED ON THE RESULTS.

報告者

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